"The Gamble" by Thomas E. Ricks

In terms of quality and tone this book picks up where the previous book, 'Fiasco' left off. Ricks still ends on a pessimistic note. For example, Iraq is more likely to closely recognise Lebanon, rather than a Western democracy (p317). As such this review has little to add, and possibly the reviews should have been done at the same time. Except, Ricks add an important element to this book that could not be raised in the first; the possibility of victory. Victory did not look likely during the time of 'Fiasco'. 'The Gamble' quite literally gives victory a chance.

Ricks also convincingly argues that victory will not look and feel like the victory that Western democracies are used to seeing. 'Victory' and 'success' will be highly debateable terms in this conflict. Indeed this maybe as a direct result of the nature of the conflict. Insurgencies do not lend themselves to clear cut victories.

It is worth quoting Ricks at length in terms of his view on the likelihood of victory in Iraq:

P316 “Nor, at the end of many more years of struggle, is the outcome likely to be something Americans will recognise as victory. Instead these additional years of sacrifice promise to be made for markedly limited objectives. A senior intelligence officer in Iraq described the long term American goal as ‘a stable Iraq that is unified, at peace with its neighbours, and is able to police its internal affairs, so it isn’t a sanctuary for al Qaeda. Preferably a friend to us, but it doesn’t have to be.’ He paused then pointed noted that his list doesn’t include democracy or the observation of human rights.
That is a surprisingly common view among officials in Iraq, even if it hasn’t yet sunk in with many Americans. Few foreigners are as steeped in Iraqi issues as Emma Sky, who is now on her third tour in the country. ‘The idea that you bring democracy to Iraq and they all become secular, liberal supporters of Israel – well, there are a lot of scenarios I can imagine before that one,’ she said. ‘It’s not going to end that way.’”

P331 “Among those that still talks of an American ‘victory’ in Iraq should be asked to address this question: For many years to come, the government in Baghdad is not likely to be stable or very democratic, but almost certainly it will be closer to Tehran than Washington. What part of that constitutes success for the US government?”