Duffy and the Daily Tabs

Reports suggest that Mrs Duffy, of 'bigot-gate' fame, has done a deal with a leading Tab. Which I'm sure will pay handsomely for the exclusive. On Radio 5, Max Clifford suggested, she could earn up to £100,000 out of the scandal.

Could this be good news for Labour? The right wing press attacks on Nick Clegg backfired because the public were more cynical about a biased press than a politician. Will they meet the Gillian Duffy exclusive with similar indifference?

Canny Alex

So Alex Salmond couldn't help but put the boot in.* He should know better. Cameron and Clegg have been restrained so far. Maybe they understand that Brown's error could so easily have happened to them too.

In fact, Salmond is a far cannier operator than either of them; so how to explain the Salmond attack? The SNP (19%) are down to third in the polls in Scotland, behind Labour (37%) and the Lib Dems (24%), just ahead of the Tories (16%). As the current government in Scotland, this is a disaster.

Of course, Thatcher is still deeply unpopular in Scotland, so any reference to a hated figure and the current PM is sensible from their point of view.

But there is something deeper here. Salmond is blaming his parties poor poll ratings on his exclusion from the leader debates. Canny though he is, he is not above becoming frustrated. And that is the real reason for him lashing out.


* - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/liveevent/
1306 "Gordon Brown didn't seem to have any trouble meeting Margaret Thatcher but he seems to have trouble meeting old age pensioners in Rochdale," SNP leader Alex Salmond tells the Scottish Parliament.

Is it all over?

The media have had a field day. The Prime Minister insults a voter and the radio waves and TV channels are abuzz with....well, not quite what you would imagine. If the BBC 'Campaign Show' and late night Radio 5 listeners are to be believed, the Prime Minister got a surprising amount of support from the people of the UK.

He is human after all. We all make mistakes, and he did at least apologise.

However, one cannot help but think that Labour will find it difficult to recover from this. They had an uphill battle to win the election, and it makes it tougher now.

The one positive from this is that Brown now has nothing to lose. What is the worst thing that could possibly happen? I expect he will either perform brilliantly tonight, or let the events of yesterday weigh him down. Call me crazy, but I suspect it will be the former.

There is still one problem. The opinion polls are still not in Labour's favour, being behind both the Tories and Lib Dems. Long term survival for Labour could depend on one thing. If the Tories are tempted by a coalition with the Lib Dems, who would be left to be the opposition, if not the Labour party?

Gaff of the election - bigots!

Oh dear. Poor Gordon. Rochdale, and a difficult discussion with a member of the public. All seemed to going so well until.....

He thought he was in private, and he thought his comments would not be heard. But they weren't.

This is such a boon for the Tories that they won't need to actually make any headway on it. Conservative Tim Montgomerie has advised the party to leave it to the media to "bury" the PM.

We can spend the rest of the campaign contrasting the bigotry of certain sections of the media, with an offhand remark from the Prime Minister. But then hypocrisy has never stopped the media before.

The Tories have a problem though. There are no guarantees that voters will transfer to Cameron in order to punish Brown. In an ever-increasing Presidential style campaign, bigoted homophobic statements from background Conservatives still have an impact.

The Tories maybe smiling most from this, but Clegg may end up the biggest winner from this spat.

The Politics of Change

Change. Real Change. Or indeed, Change you can believe in. Political slogans and their attempts to convince shouldn't be taken lightly; especially if they convince enough of us to vote for the intended party.

I will declare who I am to vote for next week. The choice is between two of the three, and it certainly aint going to be for "Call me Dave's" party.

In the meantime I will leave you with this:
“In politics, the belief that certain facts are unalterable or certain trends irresistible commonly reflects a lack of desire or lack of interest to change or resist them.”
E. H. Carr 'The Twenty Years Crisis'

Nice one Ed.

Punk and McLaren

The Sex Pistols manager, Malcolm Mclaren was buried yesterday. What struck me about the reporting of the event were the almost reverential terms with which Malcolm Mclaren's career was spoken of.

From the most unlikely of sources, conventional media mourned his passing; from the bland and complacent 'One Show' to even a mention in the Daily Mail for goodness sake.

During the Punk era, these types of media would have been glad to see the back of Punk, and all it stood for. So why the praise now? Times change, I guess, and with the passing of the years, Punk certainly won't seem as dangerous as it once was to the bland and complacent.

The anger of the SNP

Within moments of last night’s debate, the smaller parties were falling over themselves to get at the BBC to appear before the electorate. They needn't have bothered as they all said the same thing. We weren’t involved; it was a boring debate and the real issue of the campaign, in other words the one we feel most passionately about, (Europe for UKIP, Race for the BNP, Environment for the Greens etc.) was ignored by the main parties.

One stand out exception however, was the SNP. Angus Robertson was the angriest of the lot of them. (On a side note, I have met Angus Robertson once before, and he seemed quite a pleasant guy; though he won’t remember me).

But why the anger? The SNP are the government in Scotland, the chance of a hung parliament could mean increased influence at Westminster, surely things aren’t too bad for the SNP?

But there is a problem. The SNP share of the vote is the same as the last general election. But this is down from the last Holyrood elections, so it will feel as though they have gone backwards. Secondly, with every passing debate that Nick Clegg performs well in, it is doubly galling for the SNP.

The SNP leader, Alex Salmond is certainly the most intelligent and charismatic politician in Scottish politics, if not the whole of the UK. If Clegg could be doing this well against Brown and Cameron, just think what Salmond would be able to achieve? Hence the SNP's frustration.

Of course there is also the small matter of the Scottish electorate. The polls certainly seem to suggest the SNP are in second place. (http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/scottish-voting-intention) Also, will they turnout in greater numbers for a Westminster election, rather than Holyrood? Is it possible the Scottish see Westminster as a more important election?

The 2nd Election debate; but what does the future hold?

We stand at a precipice. Nobody is running away with this election in terms of the polls. Last night’s debate was a score draw for all three leaders. Clegg did well, but Brown and Cameron performed better. Cameron still hasn’t sealed the deal, but more of that later.

No election has been as close as this since 1974. Unless the polls are as incorrect as they were in 1992, it looks like no single party will command a majority. In fact this new three party system (which isn’t very new; in terms of votes since the 1970s) looks eerily similar to the 1920s; three parties, all on roughly equal share of the votes.

Labour ought to be worried. Could they be surpassed as the Centre-left alternative, much as they over took the Liberals during the interwar years?

But something even more significant could happen. This election could change everything. If there is to be a hung parliament, electoral reform will be almost irresistible.

The only scenario this could not happen is if the Conservatives win a minority government. To do that, they would need to win the highest number of seats. But Cameron is failing to look sincere, and now appears to be making policy on the hoof. I wouldn’t bet on a Tory victory just yet.

With the other parties openly advocating electoral reform, it seems this election really could be a defining moment in British political history.

Urban Living, Jeremy Paxman, and Ballard's 'High Rise'

Whilst reading Paxman's (yes him off Newsnight) book 'The English,' I came across a passage which I thought I would share in light of the review I had written on J.G. Ballard's 'High Rise.'

Here it is:
“Rich and poor differ in their expectations, but they share the same ambition. It is a house with a garden...Where else in the world would you hear it seriously argued that living in flats causes riots?”* (Original italics kept.)

Paxman argues for the need to improve urban living, being that England isn’t in the countryside. That is a myth. England is where people actually live. Full review of the book to follow....

* p170 Paxman, Jeremy, 'The English' (1998)

Quick election debate blog

Ok, last time round I discussed the possibility (nay, the likelihood) of a Conservative minority Government. Nick Clegg's performance last week in the TV debate would appear to opened up the election debate. Oft-used phrase, but never truer than in this case; it really is ALL to play for.

What has been most interesting is that the UK newspapers have tried their best to be relevant in this election by attacking Nick Clegg. How very predictable. It is this blog's opinion that their effect will be minimal. The broadcast media, if any will have the greatest influence. Plus, it has been clear to the British public for decades that Newspapers have ceased to report the news anymore. Rather they are opinion pieces with an agenda to push.

For them therefore, Nick Clegg is seen as a threat to the right-wing press. Nick Clegg clearly has to go.

If this works, remains to be seen. I doubt it will. I certainly wouldn't advise either Cameron or Brown to pursue the point. Dirty tricks and negative campaigning have not resonated with the British people this time as it may have in previous elections.