The 2nd Election debate; but what does the future hold?

We stand at a precipice. Nobody is running away with this election in terms of the polls. Last night’s debate was a score draw for all three leaders. Clegg did well, but Brown and Cameron performed better. Cameron still hasn’t sealed the deal, but more of that later.

No election has been as close as this since 1974. Unless the polls are as incorrect as they were in 1992, it looks like no single party will command a majority. In fact this new three party system (which isn’t very new; in terms of votes since the 1970s) looks eerily similar to the 1920s; three parties, all on roughly equal share of the votes.

Labour ought to be worried. Could they be surpassed as the Centre-left alternative, much as they over took the Liberals during the interwar years?

But something even more significant could happen. This election could change everything. If there is to be a hung parliament, electoral reform will be almost irresistible.

The only scenario this could not happen is if the Conservatives win a minority government. To do that, they would need to win the highest number of seats. But Cameron is failing to look sincere, and now appears to be making policy on the hoof. I wouldn’t bet on a Tory victory just yet.

With the other parties openly advocating electoral reform, it seems this election really could be a defining moment in British political history.