Advantage Cameron

For what it is worth, the odds are still on for 'Call Me Dave' Cameron, to be PM. Whether it is in minority or in coalition with the Lib Dems is less clear at the time of writing.

Why? In the background, there is something stopping Labour from making a deal with the Lib Dems. And that is this; memories of the electoral wilderness between 1979-1997 have coloured the Lib-Lab pact of the late 1970s.

Just one small grain of sand - in politics, you would rather be in Governemt with the ability to decide things, than outside looking on.

Minority Parties - Election 2010

There is a lot of talk about minority parties wielding undue influence on Government under an electoral system of Proportional Representation.

Both Thatcher and Blair governments never got more than 40% of the vote, but ran the government without partners. It is worth asking: isn't this wielding undue influence on Government?

Furthermore, why is that conservatives (small 'c' intended) always oppose any progressive policy before accommodating to it?

Snooker, and Strictly come Coaltion Building

The prediction game is a dangerous one. Indeed, it is probably best to only make predictions you are prepared to put your money on them. This column prefers to reserve its money only for gambling on sporting events, rather than political. Indeed, given the problems with Snooker's world number 1, wise punters tend not to bet on anything that talks.

Still, for what it is worth, I have found some advice for Nick Clegg, cue John Kenneth Galbraith; Politics, he said, is the art of choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.

For Labour's part, this column salutes Gordon Brown's statesmanship yesterday in his resignation, and his political career. Galbraith's advice is still relevant to Labour. The potential for disaster is to go into government in this fashion. Opposition is clearly unpalatable, but may cost Labour, the centre-left and our progressive majority less in the long run.

The Hypocrisy of Douglas Hurd

Have just heard the former Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd claim on the BBC, that a new Labour leader becoming Prime Minister was undemocratic. Maybe.

Let us remind ourselves that Douglas Hurd ran for the Conservative leadership in 1990, after the coup of Thatcher. John Major beat him to it. And Hurd was more than happy to serve in John Major's government. It was then a further two years before Major faced the British public at election time.

Douglas Hurd clearly has a short memory, as have the BBC which did not point this out to him. This column has not.

The Liberal Democrats - the SDP dividend

More on the election result to follow, but one quick thought on the debates between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.

Back in the early 1980s, the Labour party split, with a faction forming a new party, the Social Democrat Party (SDP), which eventually joined in alliance, then merged with the Liberals.

At the time, the SDP split was a disaster for the Labour party. One they never really recovered from electorally until 1992, if not 1997.

Yet, the current Lib Dems have two wings. Its traditional Liberal faction on one side, and its democratic, more Labour leaning wing. This second wing is very uncomfortable with entering any agreement with the Conservatives. Disaster though it was, but old time SDP-ers could well help Labour, if not now then maybe some time in the future.

"The English" by Jeremy Paxman

If you take any notice of Tom Bowyer he will tell you that Gordon Brown doesn’t understand the English working class. You may be forgiven for agreeing with his biographer, but barnstorming speeches the week after Duffy-gate suggest Tom has got it wrong, no matter what the result of the 2010 election.

It is an English report of the English, with an insider’s knowledge of the subject. All too often British people are can turn whingeing about the state of the nation into a national pastime. Thankfully this book ends on a positive note; England is a tremendously post-modern place and a good thing too.

This is a breezy report without being too heavy on detail, although it is clearly well researched. The English have much to learn about themselves, and this book gives a taster. For instance did you know England has produced more celebrated artists of the written word, than the painted variety? Paxo does, and explains why.
It probably wouldn’t have helped Gordon Brown avoid Duffy-gate. We are all human after all, and the British media does love a scandal. This book gets 3/5

"The unusual life of Tristan Smith" by Peter Carey

Carey once had in his mind two fictional countries, Efica and Voorstand, where this novel is set. One is left wondering if he could have left them there.
Maybe it is because one expects great things, and the disappointment is so much more of a come down. However, it is simply not the case to say a poor Carey book is better than anyone else's average.
A poor Carey book is simply that; poor.
And boy does this book just drivel on. I wonder if I have missed the point, but I felt no empathy for the characters and became quickly bored as the plot plodded along. Carey is capable of so much better. Even this book has moments of well written mastery, for example: “He wanted to hurt her, break her. He was a frightened soldier in a burning village.” But it is all too little. This book gets a disappointing 2/5.

No tin tubs

One thing I did notice this election, that was 'weird' (see previous post and our friends at The Economist) was the ballot box.

Yes. The actual ballot box. My polling station had a plastic / fabric, zip up affair. What was all that about?

Day of decision

This is it. No turning back. The campaign is over. All that is left is to now cast your vote and for the counting to begin.
We may have to go through it all over again sooner than we think. The polls suggest (according to the BBC - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm) the following;
Cons - 36% of the vote; 284 seats
Lab - 28% of the vote; 257 seats
Libs - 27% of the vote; 80 seats
Others - 9% of the vote; 29 seats
The magic figure is 326 - any party getting past that number of seats has a majority.

So who has had a good campaign? Here is my list (maybe one day I will produce some gongs like Kermode);
Best Media Personality Andrew Neil; humour and aggression in all the right places.
Most respected Politician Peter Mandelson, the dark lord has been at his menacing best. Watch Newsnight’s montage if you don’t believe me.
The disappeared No, not Percy Pig, but George Osbourne – is the economy the central issue or not? Then where is he?
Most Underused Politician Unlike boy George, Alistair Darling has not been in hiding, as by all accounts his judgement has been spot on, by the economic boffins that know about these things. Has been visible, but Labour may regret not using him more.
Numbers guy ‘Call me Dave’ Cameron, who apparently started yesterday “30 hours ago”. He clearly can’t count.
Best Speech Gordon Brown at the Citizens UK this week. And in fact every performance he has given since then.
Best Joke Simon Pegg on twitter; Gillian Duffy wanted to know about the immigrants and where all these Eastern Europeans are coming from....Pegg tweeted ‘Eastern Europe, maybe?’
Lacklutre Campaign tight one this, I defer to The Economist 31-05-2010 who said the Tories “have run a lacklustre campaign.” Can we blame ‘call me Dave’ for that too? Or maybe it is because the Tories have not been under as much scrutiny as the other parties?

Last thing to say is that, again to The Economist which has called this a ‘weird election’. Hmm – maybe, but what they could mean is that the result is uncertain. Tory minority government is still the most likely outcome (as predicted by this blog). Hold on to your hats and get the slippers and cocoa (other stimulants are available) ready. It could be a long night.

The Election 2010 - Vote

As promised, I am nailing my colours to the flag.

This is the first election where I genuinely did not know who to vote for. All I know is that I would never vote for the Tory tax cut for double millionaires and their inheritence.

I will keep it simple: I will vote Labour, but have been tempted by the Liberals and their more realistic drug policies. But here is my reasoning for Labour. They have committed to electoral reform, and the more votes they get will strengthen their hand in the possible negotiations to come.

I fear we are heading for a minority Tory administration. Given the choice, frankly, anyone but the Tories will do (Apart from the BNP, but that goes without saying).