Painful betting lessons will rarely lead to any other conclusion other than you never see a poor bookmaker. That doesn't stop some of us trying, of course. This is given extra spice when I consider my strange relationship with betting on a favourite. My own internal rules on betting will be covered in another post, where whether to bet on the favourite in any sporting event is a good idea or not.
However, it is hard not disagree with the bookmakers on this year’s favourite for the Rugby 6 Nations, France. Now you can point to their domestic club side’s steady progress in European competitions this year. The astute will notice that they play two of their toughest opponents, Ireland and England (the former being far tougher than the latter) in Paris this year. England need to be particularly wary, as they will play the French on the last game of the season in the spring.
And as we reach ever closer to the World Cup next year, Lievremont, the French coach, seems less likely to make the sweeping changes that characterised his team selections in the past. Consistency is the key to winning any championship. Although it is disappointing for those of us that are fans of Vincent Clerc, France's answer to Shane Williams, being dropped.
Of course, a bit like the Germans in the Soccer World Cup, you should never rule out the French in Rugby. They are always likely to provide a surprise (ask the All Blacks), and always seem to be in contention for the 6 Nations title. This year gives them cause for extra optimism, and the release of "Invictus", a film based on the South African success in the 1995 Rugby World Cup offers a clue.
No matter how gruelling France's summer tour in 2009 was (beating the All Blacks in their own back yard this time!) it will have had no comparison to the battering the Lions had in South Africa. In the professional era, France has won the Six Nations title the following year after each Lions tour. It would be no surprise to see a repeat this year, and that’s why the bookies are right to make them favourites.
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